2026 will expose weak finance systems: Capture Expense warns of major risks as AI, MTD, and ESG collide at year-end

  • AI shifts from experimentation to expectation across UK finance teams
  • The lower MTD for ITSA threshold reveals which businesses have the digital foundations to cope
  • New UK Sustainability Reporting Standards are forcing finance teams to connect ESG data directly to financial records

As organisations move into the 2025-26 financial year-end, UK finance teams are discovering that the real challenge isn’t the new reporting rules themselves, but whether their systems are resilient enough to handle them.

AI is embedded across more finance workflows, the Make Tax Digital (MTD) for Income Tax Self-Assessment (ITSA) threshold now applies to smaller businesses, and new Sustainability Reporting Standards require tighter integration between financial and non-financial data. The result is that weaknesses in processes and systems are becoming far harder to hide.

These pressures are landing at a time when many mid-market and SME finance teams are already stretched by uneven market conditions and tighter lending. Year-end is no longer a question of workload management, instead, it’s a test of data discipline, control design, and the maturity of the technology supporting them.

According to James Rowell, Founder of cloud-based expense management platform Capture Expense, this year marks a decisive shift in how finance teams must plan, execute, and validate their year-end close. “Year-end used to be a test of accuracy and workload. But 2026 is a test of systems maturity. The organisations that struggle this year will be the ones trying to retrofit controls in March instead of operating with clean data throughout the year.”

AI is a critical control layer

Across finance teams, AI is now embedded in reconciliation, document analysis, coding accuracy and transaction validation. Auditors increasingly expect clear evidence of automated checks, especially as February-March claim volumes spike and manual review chains cannot guarantee consistency.

Rowell explains that AI is no longer viewed as an operational convenience but as a governance requirement. “Regulators and auditors want to see predictable, repeatable controls. AI creates that consistency. If a business’ financial accuracy still depends on who is reviewing expenses on a particular day, that’s a risk, and year-end exposes it immediately.”

The MTD threshold drop forces continuous data capture

With Making Tax Digital now applying to businesses earning £50,000 or more, many organisations that previously operated informally must now demonstrate sustained digital record-keeping rather than ad-hoc submissions.

This change alters the entire year-end dynamic. “MTD is fundamentally about maintaining clean, consistent digital records, not rushing to convert them at year-end,” Rowell says. “If the underlying expense data hasn’t been captured cleanly throughout the year, March becomes a scramble. Bad inputs in November become compliance issues in April.”

Finance teams without disciplined, real-time capture are expected to face higher reconciliation effort, more expectations, and increased audit scrutiny. And at year-end, that translates directly into slower closes and far less room to correct errors.

ESG reporting moves into the financial workflow

The introduction of UK Sustainability Reporting Standards, combined with stricter internal-control expectations, means ESG reporting can no longer be treated as an end-of-year parallel activity.

For many organisations, the challenge lies in the integration. Carbon calculations, travel-related emissions, and governance indicators must reconcile directly with expense and operational data, not sit apart from it.

“Retrofitting carbon data is now an audit liability,” Rowell explains. “Finance teams that only start thinking about ESG in March will find themselves rebuilding half their records. Controls need to sit at the point of submission rather than in the spreadsheet the week before deadline.”

The importance of clean data

Despite expected resilience among large-listed firms, mid-market organisations face tightening cash flow environments, shifting lending patterns and more conservative investment behaviour. Meanwhile, regulatory focus from the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) continues to intensify around financial crime, sanctions management, operational resilience and data quality.

These conditions make real-time spend visibility critical. Without it, finance teams risk delayed closes, incorrect forecasts, and fractured audit trails.

Rowell says: “Most financial teams think they have a process issue. In reality, the problem is a combination of weak data and systems that were never built to support year-round control. Year-end magnifies the weaknesses that have been accumulating for twelve months. Clean inputs reduce risk, reduce cycle times, and reduce stress. Tools like Capture Expense exist to make that possible at scale.”

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