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Banking in 2035: Trust, climate risks and geopolitical rivalry shape a purpose-driven industry, forecasts study

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A new SAS-sponsored study by Economist Impact predicts three potential futures for banking, examining the risks and opportunities ahead

As disruptive forces roil today’s financial sector, banking execs are scrutinising the evolving role of banks in the most competitive market they’ve ever faced. What does the future hold? And how can they meet the challenges ahead to forge a brighter future – both for the industry and the greater world? Such is the focus of a new future of banking study, Banking in 2035: three possible futures, by Economist Impact and sponsored by AI and analytics leader SAS.

The first in a two-part study, the report presents three possible scenarios for the 2035 banking landscape. Through extensive desk research and expert interviews, Economist Impact’s analysis:

  • Snapshots the “megatrends” primed to resculpt the banking landscape over the next decade.

  • Uncovers risks and opportunities presented in different combinations of trends.

  • Highlights specific ways banks can evolve to support a more equitable, ethical and sustainable future.

In confronting quandaries like climate change, economic fragmentation, and pervasive economic and social inequities, the study is clear: Banks face a defining moment.

“The sector’s rapid evolution amidst prevailing uncertainty begs a fundamental question: What is the purpose of banks?” said Yuxin Lin, Senior Manager of Policy and Insights at Economist Impact. “How banking leaders answer this question – and the business decisions they make as a result – will redefine the entire industry.”

“Banks have the power to elevate not just our global economy but all of humankind,” said Alex Kwiatkowski, Director of Global Financial Services at SAS. “By embracing technology and innovation with intention, banks can pave a more purpose-driven path, where higher purpose and profitability go hand-in-hand. And if they don’t embrace this fully, a golden opportunity to make a genuine difference will be squandered, potentially with very serious consequences.”

Scenario 1: Can transformed banks regain public trust?

Since the 2008 financial crisis, banks have faced reputational trouble. In fact, financial services consistently ranks among the least trustworthy sectors, currently inspiring confidence in just over half (54%) of the public, according to the 2022 Edelman Trust Barometer.

Flashing forward to 2035, Scenario 1 envisions a world where banks wield digital transformation to rehabilitate their image. Banks have strengthened data privacy and cyber fraud safeguards and championed consumer-focused regulation. Greater transparency and consumer protections buoy public trust, fuelling open banking and partnerships that ignite lucrative new offerings. Digital platforms frictionlessly unify every facet of customers’ financial lives in personalised, customisable ways.

“Consumer trust, built over many years, can be lost in an instant,” said Stu Bradley, Senior Vice President of Fraud and Security Intelligence at SAS. “As digitalisation accelerates, it is critical that banks create hyper-personalised engagement as they address rising risks. In balancing customer experience and risk, an enterprise decisioning approach – where fraud, risk and engagement decisions integrate holistically across the customer journey – can cut costs and streamline banks’ IT infrastructures, while boosting revenue and customer retention.”

Scenario 2: Might banks catalyse cross-industry climate action and power the green transition?

Addressing the climate crisis will require unprecedented global cooperation and collaboration. According to the United Nations, governments’ current commitments for reducing greenhouse gas emissions fall far short of what’s needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Averting the worst impacts of climate change demands quick, decisive action.

Scenario 2 foresees a global community committed to climate action in 2035, where decarbonisation is a foremost consideration across energy, infrastructure and transportation. Cities have been redesigned for energy efficiency and climate resiliency. Cost-effective renewable energy sources and green technologies are the norm.

“Climate leadership in the banking sector will drive greater cross-industry progress toward net-zero emissions by 2050 – and it starts now with better analytics, modelling and management of climate risk,” said Troy Haines, Senior Vice President and Head of Risk Research and Quantitative Solutions at SAS. “In enhancing their ability to model climate risk scenarios and understand potential impacts to their balance sheets and capital, banks can help propel the green transition and advance worldwide climate resilience.”

Scenario 3: How will banks fare in a geopolitically fragmented world?

Even as the world tries to put the worst of COVID-19 in the rearview mirror, economic and market uncertainties abound. The pandemic’s aftereffects have magnified tensions between the world’s economic superpowers while overburdening developing ones, whose populations suffer outsized consequences.

Against this backdrop, it isn’t hard to imagine Scenario 3, which depicts a geopolitically contentious world stage in 2035, coloured by divergent interests and a retreat of multilateralism among the world’s economic giants. Bilateral and regional agreements have supplanted the World Trade Organization. The global financial system has been fractured by rivals’ alternative payment systems and the rise of digital currencies.

“Deglobalisation, accelerated by recent global events, will likely widen the staggering societal inequalities that plague us today,” said Theodora Lau, Founder of Unconventional Ventures. “Indisputably, banking and money are at the heart of it all. Each of us has a role to play in championing a more inclusive and sustainable future with our actions of today.”

Reimagining banking for the 21st century – at Sibos and everywhere

Lau, also a renowned author, speaker and industry commentator, will join SAS’ Kwiatkowski on the Meet the Experts stage at next week’s Sibos conference in Amsterdam. The duo will delve into the study at their joint session, Embedding Generosity Into the Global Economy, on Wednesday, Oct. 12, at 12:30 p.m. CEST.

Attendees can also engage with SAS throughout the conference at Sibos Booth B115.

SAS will debut part two of this future of banking study in November. Banking in 2035: global banking survey report will explore the results of an international survey of banking industry professionals. In the meantime, learn how better insights beget better banking at SAS.com/betterbanking.

Banking

Will ‘Britcoin’ change the way we bank?

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The Treasury and Bank of England recently announced a state-backed digital pound is likely to be launched in the UK later this decade, following the popularity of cryptocurrencies. However, the ‘Britcoin’ will be backed by the central bank, ensuring the digital pound will be much less volatile than its sister, cryptocurrency. Could a digital pound backed by the central bank be the answer to utilising technological developments in the finance system for the better?

Ross Thompson, Accountancy and Finance Lecturer at Arden University, considers what we can expect from ‘Britcoin’, how this will impact consumers, businesses, and the economy, and whether ‘Britcoin’ could be the revolution to restore our confidence in the banking system.

Trust in our financial system hit an all-time low post the 2008 financial crash. Even ten years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, a survey found 66% of adults in Britain still don’t trust banks to work in the best interests of society.

This means there remains to be apprehension for people to sign up to and use a bank to help manage their money. The UK doesn’t seem to struggle too much in this arena, however, as according to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), most UK consumers (96%) have a current account from a bank or building society. Regardless, there is still a significant number of adults who do not have a bank account or are what is known as ‘unbanked’.

The lack of trust plays a big part here. More people want better control over their money and to cut out the middleman, hence why cryptocurrencies and blockchain became a tempting option, as it can potentially remove the need for banks for any transactions. However, the volatility of these currencies has been a cause for concern for many investors and regulators.

Blockchain and cryptocurrency are gaining more traction and are becoming more of a viable option for businesses, especially due to talks of regulations coming into fruition. This is especially true with cryptocurrency, with the government announcing crypto assets will be subject to FCA rules in line with the same high standards that other financial promotions such as stocks, shares, and insurance products are held to.

The “Britcoin” aims to solve the issues traditional Bitcoin presents. It would be backed by the central bank, which would ensure its stability and reduce its volatility, making it a more attractive option for investors and providing greater confidence in the stability of the financial system. Britcoin will be as stable as the inherent stability of the British economy and political system. It would also provide an opportunity for the UK to stay at the forefront of technological developments in the finance system – a system in which it can sometimes be slow to react.

One of the key benefits of a digital pound is that it would be much faster and more efficient than traditional banking systems. Transactions could be completed almost instantly, regardless of where the parties involved are located. This would make cross-border transactions much easier and could even help to boost international trade.

The Bank of England’s Governor, Andrew Bailey, stated: “a digital pound would provide a new way to pay, help businesses, maintain trust in money and better protect financial stability”, pointing toward the other advantage of a digital pound. It would offer more security as transactions would be recorded on a distributed ledger, which would make it much more difficult for hackers to tamper with the system. It would also provide greater transparency, as all transactions would be recorded on the ledger and could be easily traced if needed.

However, there are also some potential drawbacks. One concern is that it could lead to a reduction in the use of cash, which could have implications for those who do not have access to digital technologies or who prefer to use cash for privacy reasons. There are also concerns that a digital pound could be used for illicit activities, such as money laundering or terrorism financing. On top of this, more details are required in relation to the levels of personal account privacy; the potential to usher in ‘big brother’ banking systems is a growing a concern regarding state digital currencies.

Around 85 central banks are currently engaged in projects to create digital currencies, according to figures from the Bank for International Settlements. But as it stands, many feel there is probably little need for a digital pound; with a growing amount of people using their debit cards, phones and watches to fulfil the same function, a digital pound is deemed unnecessary. On top of this, many of the public fear that a government digital currency could potentially infringe on their privacy – despite the BoE stating the currency would be subject to rigorous standards of privacy and data protection.

And in countries where a digital currency has already been established, there has been little uptake – widely due to the lack of trust between central banks and citizens. It seems gaining users’ confidence should be the Bank’s first priority. The House of Lords economic affairs committee stated last year that a digital pound would pose “significant risks” such as state surveillance, financial instability as people convert bank deposits to CBDC during periods of economic stress, an increase in central bank power without sufficient scrutiny and could be exploited by hostile states and criminals; it is safe to say that the nation’s ‘Britcoin’ will need to be very well thought out.

It has the potential to revolutionize the finance system, however, and could provide significant benefits to investors and consumers alike. However, the potential risks and drawbacks must be carefully considered before any decision is made to launch such a currency. Having said that, if it is implemented correctly, a digital pound could be a powerful tool for utilising technological developments in the finance system for the better.

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Why the future is phygital

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By Eric Megret-Dorne, Head of Card Issuance Services and Service Operations at Giesecke + Devrient

 

Digital banking has become increasingly ingrained in people’s everyday lives. Today, 73% of people globally use online banking at least once a month. Traditional bricks-and-mortar banks, which have long relied on the in-person experience with customers, are now having to step up their offering. With new ways of working blurring the work-home boundary, banks must ensure a fast, seamless connection between face-to-face processes and virtual customer experiences.

However, this does not mean that physical and digital banking are in competition with each other. In fact, many continue to use physical bank cards, with 1.12 billion in circulation in 2021, which provides the basis for digital payments and offerings. As a result, the benefits of digitalisation should converge with the comfort of physical touchpoints to create a holistic, “phygital” experience.

The path to phygital

Banks are accelerating their digital transformation strategies to keep up with the fast pace of fintech innovations. To meet the changing needs and preferences of customers, the payment world is leveraging new technologies to create personalised experiences through a range of different channels.

While the digitalisation of banking has been underway for quite some time – particularly for younger generations – events such as the Covid-19 crisis forced banks and customers of all ages to use digital tools and processes to compensate for branch, office, and call centre closures. With branches worldwide typically operating at reduced capacity due to social distancing requirements, consumers embraced online banking to avoid both the virus and potentially long queues.

However, some consumers still enjoy physical touchpoints, meaning a digital-only approach won’t suit everyone.

Striking a balance

It’s all about options – consumers now want to freely switch between traditional and digital channels without being forced into one. But how can banks achieve this phygital balance? One way is to equip physical channels with digital capabilities, so that online tools can augment the physical experience. For example, personalised bank cards with a bespoke design can be activated digitally, offering customers an extra layer of convenience. Having to wait for a new PIN to arrive in the mail is a common bugbear for consumers, so bringing card activation processes into the digital ecosystem will ensure a more seamless experience.

Greater automation in the card issuance and activation process enables the benefits of digital to be integrated into the physical banking experience without being intrusive. For instance, self-service kiosks empower customers to print their own cards, reducing the time between acquisition and card issuance, while still allowing for in-branch expertise if needed.

The personal touch

Phygital strategies also give banks a range of valuable data insights that can help them better serve their customers. This includes data on purchasing behaviours and habits, which can then be utilised to improve banks’ offerings and unify the physical and digital brand experience. Using omnichannel data helps to build a hyperpersonalisation strategy to provide real-time services.

In this way, digital solutions help banks maximise their user experience. Whenever a consumer interact with a bank, it creates data and behaviours. With fragmented databases, legacy systems and real-time data created by interactions with third-party partners through Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), it is not always easy for banks to streamline this data from different sources. By understanding patterns in that data and behaviours, banks can tailor and personalise unique experiences for each and every user.

Where security meets innovation

With big data opportunities abound, banks should be mindful of their consumers’ security concerns. Customers are now demanding much more transparency when it comes to how information is stored and collected. At the same time, they still desire greater personalisation via digital methods. Therefore, any successful phygital strategy requires a robust digital security to ensure customers have the same peace of mind as when they complete physical transactions.

To close the gap between innovation and security, banks should utilise tokenised infrastructure, which ensures the safe provision of payment credentials and securing of customer payments across all touchpoints. This is particularly important as regulations such as PSD2 and SCA demand strong authentication requirements.

The use of a token greatly enhances the consumer experience. For example, it allows for card details to be automatically updated for subscription services upon the expiry of an existing one, avoiding any service disruption.  Multi-factor authentication can also ensure an additional layer of security, as it combines a password with verifiable human biometrics such as fingerprints or facial recognition.

Best of both worlds

Every consumer has unique preferences when it comes to banking. Therefore, banks must evolve by bringing both physical and virtual touchpoints into a ‘phygital’ world. Only a phygital approach can meet the needs of all end users – whether they favour an in-person experience, an online one, or a blend of the two. The holistic data insights, personalisation opportunities, and optimised security ensured at every touchpoint are also critical in building future-ready banks.

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