Scott Dawson, CEO at DECTA
The executive order from Donald Trump greenlighting privately issued stablecoins was just one of the whirlwinds of 2025 so far.
This news elicited a response from Europe. In his latest speech, Philip Lane, the European Central Bank’s Chief Economist categorically states, that the Digital Euro is vital to the ECB and the time for rolling it out is now. Then came the US’s tariffs on imports from about 90 nations including, China and those in European Union, nearly causing an onslaught of a global recession. As if that was not enough, JD Vance confirmed suspicions of Musk staying on as an ‘advisor’ to the white house after his work with DOGE finishes.
This being said, it could be challenging to make predictions about how even a small part of the world, let alone payment technology would affect the global agenda, and where it is headed. Yet, we’ve got to have a fair idea of the future since we need to orientate the future.
Shredding the Regulatory Red Tape
Talking to payments professionals about regulation is like talking to fish about water: it’s always there, it always will be there and talking about a time when it will just disappear seems ludicrous. If anything, we have only seen the quantity and quality of regulation increase: DORA was introduced this year and PSD3 will soon be released to improve upon the already transformative Payment Services Directive.
However, we might be about to see the first real instance of the once-inevitable march of regulation start to run in reverse. The US government’s need to use tariffs to enforce its will across the world and the Starmer government’s attempt to walk the line between the US and EU might result in the UK government being willing to loosen up regulations. Right now, Trump seems more focused on loosening or straight-up abolishing regulations to help US companies compete.
Open Banking is Expanding – just not under the ‘Open Banking’ Moniker
This year is ‘set to be a pivotal one for Open Banking’, according to Open Banking Limited. 11 million people use Open Banking each month in the UK, and 11.5 million payments are processed through it each month. PSD3 will only improve the technology and regulations behind Open Banking, hopefully leading to more uptake. We could be looking at a doubling of that eleven million figure, or perhaps more.
Whatever occurs in the Open Banking world, its name will change. Results from DECTA’s (www.decta.com) research (show that the UK public, is unsure about the concept of Open Banking. 5% say that being unable to use Open Banking payments adversely affects them while buying from UK businesses which should be a higher number.
What explains the gap? Almost two-thirds of people are using Open Banking without knowledge showing that the concept needs to be used within the payments industry without being public knowledge.
Will Mobile Wallets Continue to Rise in Popularity?
20% of Britons physically make purchases with their smartphones, and 38% of transactions online are paid through a mobile wallet. The industry unanimously agrees the number is set to grow based on certain assumptions:
Firstly, 94% of all Britons own a smartphone, meaning there is a large potential market for mobile wallet apps – it can triple in size. Though mobile wallets have been around for a decade, it’s unlikely that the 74% of UK residents who own a without payment apps haven’t heard of them. The likely reason that they’re not using them is security. Digital wallet crime is rare, but many people err on the side of caution.
What may move the needle on mobile wallet adoption is introducing more features to the apps than just payments.
Account to Account Soars
Account to Account, or A2A, is one of the places Open Banking can find its way into the financial mainstream. Although A2A payments don’t exclusively use Open Banking, they offer one of the key parts of Open Banking – direct push and pull payments that don’t involve existing card systems.
There are currently a host of ways to make real-time payments. Consumers don’t want to enter a shop’s account number and sort code when they’re making payments, so API hooks can be used to connect a customer’s account directly to the merchants.
How can this soar? One of the few notable payments innovations is tap to pay. It needs no additional software or hardware to work.
Finding the Equilibrium
Clearly, there is so much going on, and any of it could have a monumental impact. It’s wrong to dismiss the entire project of prediction however, because some things won’t change.
Customers require functionality without complexity; companies want a profit, and that unfortunately translates to avoiding regulations that add extra cost; regulators want to protect consumers and don’t mind adding complexity or cost to do so.
There’s going to be some give and take between all of these actors, and when you add in new technology and political developments, you’ll begin to see what’s possible.
