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Wealth Management

STOCK MARKET ANALYSTS DISCUSS HOW TO INVEST DURING A RECESSION

  • Online tool looks back at how world markets recovered after the last recession in 2008
  • Analysts take learnings from previous recessions to offer insight on how to invest during a period of instability
  • Certain areas of the stock market can increase in value during a recession

The economic crash due to Covid-19 is a unique event, however stock market experts have taken learnings from previous recessions to predict the stocks that may increase in value during this time.

IG Markets, Europe’s largest online derivatives trading provider, has taken learnings from previous recessions, using historical data and online tools such as Decade of Trade, which visualises world stock market trends over the 10 years since the 2008 crash, to provide predictions about the areas of the stock market to watch during an inevitable recession.

 

Stocks to watch during a recession

Under expansionary circumstances, stocks that have strong growth prospects such as healthcare and consumer staple sectors, for the future typically command lofty valuations and produce high returns, as investors bank on the company’s ability to generate more income as time progresses. This phenomenon typically results in high price to earnings (P/E) ratios like those currently present in some of the market-leading tech stocks.

In the event of an economic downturn, however, these profit-hopeful stocks are often discarded as investors align their income assumptions with slowing growth and lower consumer spending.

On the other hand, stocks with stable – but often more modest – income generation tend to be more insulated from dramatic stock shocks that frequently accompany recessionary periods. These stocks are known as “defensives” and, broadly speaking, include the utility, healthcare and consumer staple sectors. Given their profitability profiles, they become an important collection of stocks to keep an eye on when the broader market encounters a rough patch.

Consequently, a portfolio comprised entirely of equities is remarkably vulnerable in times of recession, particularly at the onset when losses are often steepest. With that in mind, it may prove beneficial to look outside of the equity market for some of the best recession-proof investments.

 

Gold can be an investment during a recession

XAU/USD is widely regarded as a safe haven asset for its stable store of value and tangibility. Further still, gold can act as an inflationary hedge, making it an attractive investment in times of recession and in periods of lower interest rates when inflation may threaten to take hold. Gold has demonstrated an almost innate ability to retain its value during contractionary periods, thus making it an attractive investment in times of uncertainty.

 

The US dollar: an attractive currency during recessions

Sharing similarities with gold, the US Dollar also boasts safe haven attributes. Due to its role as the world’s reserve currency and the backing of the world’s largest economy, the US Dollar is both incredibly liquid and sought after. Issued by the Federal Reserve, the Greenback is arguably the safest currency in the world and has become a quasi-currency of exchange in many nations where domestic currencies have had their purchasing power fall, due to inflationary pressures or other economic woes.

Consequently, holding US Dollars during periods of uncertainty or turmoil is often viewed as an attractive alternative to other assets. Evidenced in the Great Financial Crisis when the United States dragged the rest of the world into a global recession, the US Dollar surged almost 25% during 2007 to 2009 even as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to the floor.

The Dollar’s strength was largely owed to the fact that the Federal Reserve possessed ample liquidity and the US economy was soon in a position to recover while others were mired in recessions – some of which have never fully recovered.

Joshua Warner, Anaylst at IG Markets, said: “While there is a strong argument that a global health pandemic like Covid-19 has been on the radar of governments and institutions for decades, the lack of preparedness of most governments and businesses shows how unprecedented the current situation is.

“It is almost guaranteed that the UK will enter a recession in the coming months. The Bank of England (BoE) has said it is likely to be the sharpest one on record, while Chancellor Rishi Sunak has warned it will be a ‘severe recession the likes of which we haven’t seen before’.”

Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst at Daily FX.com, said: “With the benefit of hindsight and the lessons of the three most recent recessions, it can be argued the best recession investments are not stocks at all, but rather assets that retain their value even as growth slips. Therefore, if equity exposure is a must-have in your portfolio, the US Dollar and gold should also be given consideration – particularly for the risk-averse investor or one who suspects an impending recession.”

 

To learn more about the stock market over the last 10 years to understand future trends, please visit: https://www.ig.com/uk/special-reports/decade-of-trade

Wealth Management

HOW RESILIENT IS YOUR ORGANISATION’S SECURITY?

Kimon Nicolaides, Digital Services Group Head at MASS

 

Organisational security can be thought of like peeling the layers of an onion – with critical assets sitting in the middle protected by multiple layers, and if one layer is removed or breached, there’s another one underneath. At least that’s the way it should be – too often, however, we see a siloed approach to the different areas of security. In practice, physical, cyber and personnel security can be much more inter-related than many imagine.

The finance sector is arguably one of the more mature in terms of established security measures. However, it’s also vastly diverse, targeted by some of the most advanced threat actors, and one where even the smallest breach has the potential for significant impact, monetarily, or on market reputation, perception or confidence. Security measures should therefore be viewed holistically, led and understood by senior management, otherwise gaps for exploitation will be found by intelligent and experienced people, supported by an ever-growing arsenal of exploitation technology.

Here, we take a closer look at some of the things that comprise a holistic view of security – based on the approach we take with public sector and defence organisations.

 

Physical security

It may seem obvious, but the first layer to assess should be the physical access to your business. For all organisations, this step remains as true today as it ever has been – even for the finance industry where physical security principles have been established over many years.

This stage should go back to the basics of how an intruder could gain access, starting by reviewing the ‘perimeter’ controls. In fact, the first question is, ‘what is the perimeter?’. With the potential for distributed site facilities, linked remote assets, and supply chain dependencies, this simple question needs careful consideration.

Scenario-based analysis, using threat actor personas, motivations and objectives can really help by defining a where a ‘perimeter’ really lies. It’s also an invaluable methodology for exposing how an organisation could be exploited.

This stage should involve a review of physical controls such as fencing, access technology, CCTV coverage etc., including, their role in deterrence and detection of hostile reconnaissance activities.  Disrupting the planning cycle of attacks is often overlooked relative to direct prevention of unauthorised access.

Ultimately, security measures are only as effective as the people that apply them, so an understanding of human behaviours is essential. It’s important to consider how people’s actions affect overall site security and, why these actions occur.

Issues can range from the wearing of security badges in the street through to poor motivation and effectiveness of roving security staff or those monitoring CCTV. Simple and innocent human mistakes could form the seed of future security breaches.

 

Cyber security

The finance sector has progressed its cyber resilience considerably as it’s been dealing with threats for many years. But business sizes now range from the very large to the small and, as new forms of financial transactions evolve, protection becomes more challenging. There is an increased availability of cyber exploitation toolsets and associated managed services and coupled with a reduction in their cost – lowering the financial and technical barriers to advanced cyber-attacks.

This means that cyber security, even for the finance sector, needs to be taken to a new level and existing assumptions continuously challenged.

For example, while penetration testing regimes remain a vital tool in mitigating network cyber risk (including ‘CBEST’ which has been widely rolled out across the finance sector), these still remain a snapshot in time. While they deliver valuable depth of analysis within a network, they are often constrained in breadth of scope and can potentially leave vulnerability blind spots. Very frequent, lighter-touch cyber assessments can fill this gap as they offer a more dynamic view of ongoing vulnerabilities over a wider proportion of the estate, which could represent ‘low hanging fruit’ for the cyber actor. Assessments can be enhanced by applying modern threat intelligence techniques to rapidly identify existing compromises and potential weaknesses (including personnel and corporate digital footprint). This establishes a picture of cyber posture and vulnerabilities before any testing taking place.

Similarly, end-user device security is often viewed in terms of the encryption strength, keys etc.  However, modern methods of fault injection attack (a device’s response to artificially applied ‘fault conditions’ used to derive security credentials), can effectively sidestep assumed security measures, which would normally take decades to ‘crack’ using computer power. So, it makes sense to test a device’s vulnerability to fault injection, rather than assuming encryption alone will protect it.

For this reason, it’s crucial to examine the wider supply chain. In the finance sector, there is high dependence on suppliers of digital telecommunications and energy services, and when different systems are interconnected its challenging to pinpoint cyber resilience risks. Despite this, it’s possible to map complex information to establish risk, by identifying ‘hot-spot’ concentrations of dependencies that represent single-point failures within the complexity of the overall business operation.

 

The insider threat

The potential threat from insiders – those who might misuse their legitimate access to an organisation’s assets for unauthorised purposes – is often overlooked.

This is particularly true for financial businesses, where personal financial gain could be an incentive, or where security controls are so effective that hostile actors must exploit those with legitimate access to circumvent them. You can think of insider threat as the ‘grand master skeleton key’ of security, as there are few security measures that cannot be overcome by the right insider, or team of insiders.  Security compromises involving insiders can also have a disproportionately high business impact.

Yet many organisations consider insider risk to be mitigated simply by pre-employment screening and fail to recognise the spectrum of risks ranging from genuine human error, through to orchestrated insider activity by paid professionals. Insider cases frequently involve individuals who have been with an organisation for some years and have had some personal vulnerability exploited or exposed, or simply become disgruntled.

It’s a broad area to address. Internal governance, security culture, employee wellbeing, employment measures, corporate digital footprint, and perceived employee sentiment are some of the aspects that should be considered. When you have understood this for your own organisation, you should make the same assessment of your supply chain.

If the business is committed, it’s possible to use structured analytical methods to quantify your organisation’s maturity and assess where the key vulnerabilities and risks could lie. This understanding paves the way for improvement, and even small changes can make a big difference.

 

The hidden layers

Like an onion, there are hidden layers to security that may be overlooked so it’s important to consider physical, cyber and personnel security collectively, and to understand the dependencies you have as a business.

For example, your own environment may be protected, but if data is shared with your suppliers or partners, is it still secure? Similarly, if a supplier or partner has a security breach, what does it mean for your operation, your business continuity and your customers?

When assessing security measures, it’s essential to go an extra layer deeper and consider how a range of factors could impact your organisation and its readiness to respond to an incident.

At MASS, our security experts consist of professionals with extensive experience in preventing security breaches and performing assessments in accordance with Ministry of Defence processes, so that we can ensure our security analysis meets and exceeds industry best practice.

For more information, please visit: https://www.mass.co.uk/what-we-do/cyber-security/cyber-security-training/

 

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Wealth Management

HOW TO CATCH UP ON YOUR RETIREMENT SAVINGS

By Gerard Visser, Certified Financial Planner at Alexander Forbes

For many South Africans who were already finding it difficult to save for retirement, Covid-19 has created additional financial pressures which may take years to overcome.

If you stopped contributions to your retirement annuity, or took a payment holiday on your pension or provident fund, you might be worried about the shortfall created, and how you’re going to catch up.

Stop worrying and take action to avoid retiring with insufficient funds. There are many ways to contribute to your retirement, from employer and employee contributions to pension or provident fund, monthly contributions to a Retirement Annuity or a tax free savings account.

With many people having a reduced income due to the economic ramifications of Covid-19, it might be impossible to contribute a large monthly amount to catch up while having concerns such as debt to pay, but I recommend starting with your budget. This will aid you not only by freeing up extra funds to catch up your retirement contributions with, but could also create some peace of mind with an opportunity to pay debts off faster or save some discretionary money.

Gerard Visser

There are many reasons why it is important to follow a monthly budget. Besides reducing stress levels by keeping an eye on your spending habits, it also allows you to track your debts, finding opportunities to top up emergency funds or save extra towards your retirement. A budget goes hand-in-hand with setting and achieving financial goals.

A budget does create an additional administrative burden and requires time to update. I have my budget on an Excel spreadsheet and update it monthly when making EFT payments.

Costs for entertainment, groceries and petrol are variable in nature and change each month. You might end up not using all the funds set aside for these variable costs. Adding these leftover funds at the end of the month to your savings is a good habit to inculcate. The immediate impact might seem small but over time will make a positive outcome to both your retirement and the development of a savings mind-set.

When you are able to free up some money each month, start automating your savings. Instead of having a variable amount go towards savings, set up an automatic contribution, where you “pay yourself first”. Set up an automatic debit for your retirement savings and you’ll grow these funds without having to think about it.

One of the most important decisions you can take to help make your retirement comfortable is preserving your retirement funds when changing employer.

When starting new employment or if you are coming out of a payment holiday, try matching your employer’s monthly contribution toward your pension or provident fund, or if on a total cost to company structure, start on the maximum employee contribution percentage. By doing this as well as automating your savings, you get use to contributing those amounts and could potentially have a larger nest egg at retirement.

Remember that life happens, and your budget might come under strain – many of us have experienced this during the pandemic. If you have been going through a difficult financial time, it is time to reassess and ask yourself, what in your budget is necessary and what is actually a luxury?

It is never too late to start sorting out your finances, but the earlier you start, the better, and more achievable, the outcome will be.

 

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