Peak trading is no longer behaving the way retailers expect it to. According to new analysis from SaleCycle, performance data captured during the 2025 seasonal period – specifically the two weeks leading up to Valentine’s Day and Easter in 2025 – reveals a pattern of unpredictable spending, inconsistent engagement, and structural friction that retailers will need to address long before the high-value trading period of Q4.
Drawing on these 2025 early-year peaks, Jonathan Keighley, Chief Revenue Officer at SaleCycle, says these early-year peaks now act as a forecast for the year ahead, and 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined by volatility rather than steady uplift.
What the early peaks are already telling us
While Valentine’s Day and Easter are fundamentally different in theme and shopper mindset, SaleCycle’s data shows that both periods expose the same systemic challenges retailers will face across all major peaks this year:
- Valentine’s Day saw a 29% increase in average order value, while Easter experienced a 55% drop – a swing that underlines just how reactive, context-driven and sentiment-led consumer spending has become.
- Abandonment remained at ~64% across both periods, signalling that checkout friction is now a baseline issue.
- Recovery email performance fell by 15% at Valentine’s Day and 17% at Easter, pointing to deepening inbox fatigue and lower attention spans during seasonal campaigns.
- Conversion from click held steady at 10-11%, showing that once a shopper re-engages, the intent to purchase remains strong.
These figures highlight trends that are only likely to intensify as the year progresses.
Spending patterns will swing harder than ever in 2026
The sharp contrast between Valentine’s Day (+29% AOV) and Easter (-55% AOV) is not an anomaly. Shoppers are engaging in more deliberate, emotionally anchored spending around occasions that carry personal meaning, while exercising heightened restraint around lower-stakes events such as mid-season sales or payday weekends.
“What we’re seeing is far more reactive and emotionally driven spending than in previous years,” says Keighley. “For example, Valentine’s Day delivered a 29% uplift in average order value, while Easter showed a 55% drop. That tells us shoppers are prepared to spend more when the occasion feels meaningful, and far less when it doesn’t. This kind of volatility will define peaks throughout 2026.”
For retailers, this means forecasting and promotional planning must account for volatile, event-specific elasticity. Static assumptions about peak spending will leave teams overestimating demand in some periods and missing opportunities in others.
High abandonment is a structural feature of peak trading
The fact that cart abandonment sites at ~64% for both Valentine’s Day and Easter suggests that the issue has moved beyond seasonality. Even on peak-volume days like Black Friday – where promotions are stronger and intent is higher – SaleCycle’s research consistently shows that abandonment remains one of the costliest leaks in the funnel.
This consistency points to a deeper truth: checkout friction does not dilute during peaks, it compounds. When demand spikes, so does cognitive load. Consumers browse more, compare more, hesitate more. If checkout journeys aren’t optimised, no level of promotional pressure can counteract abandonment.
“Even when the buying intent is high, shoppers still hit the same friction points,” Keighley says. “Unclear delivery timelines, slow checkout flows, and limited payment options. If retailers don’t address these fundamentals early, they’ll carry the same losses into bigger peaks later in the year.”
Peak shopping behaviour is now fragmented and unpredictable
Black Friday has already evolved from a one-day event to a month-long campaign, demonstrating how peaks expand as retailers chase attention. But what Valentine’s Day and Easter reveal is the next phase of this evolution: peaks with no clear surges at all.
During both events, SaleCycle saw no predictable peak day or hour, signalling a shift towards micro-shopping moments. Shoppers browse on mobile throughout the day, switch devices frequently, and make decisions in short bursts. This fragmentation is amplified by the rise of incognito browsing and guest checkout – behaviours SaleCycle’s identity resolution technology directly addresses.
“The idea of a ‘rush period’ during peaks is disappearing,” Keighley notes. “Instead of a single surge in activity, shopping is now spread out over a longer period of time – but within that window, behaviour happens in short, fragmented bursts. These bursts tend to happen on mobile, across multiple devices, and at times that rarely match retailer expectations. This shift means retailers need always-on activation and real-time responsiveness, rather than timing campaigns around one anticipated moment.”
Volatility is the new baseline
Valentine’s Day and Easter are early signals, but they point to a wider truth: 2026 will be the most inconsistent peak-trading year in recent memory. Spending will fluctuate sharply, engagement will fragment, and traditional peak-planning models will no longer hold.
Retailers who succeed will be those who adopt flexible, real-time strategies – recognising that peaks are no longer predictable events, but dynamic, sentiment-driven moments shaped by economic reality and shifting consumer psychology.