Banking

THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT: BANKING’S NEW REALITY

Simon Wilson, Director, Payment Solutions, Icon Solutions

There are decades where it feels like nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades seem to happen. In just over 100 days, COVID-19 has swept around the planet, more than half the world’s population has been forced into lockdown, far too many lives have been lost and entire industries have shutdown. A crippling global recession seems inevitable and a clear exit strategy, for now, remains elusive.

Make no mistake, this truly is the end of the world as we know it. As we gradually emerge from this unprecedented crisis, societies and economies will have been irreversibly transformed at a pace and scale that would have been unimaginable only months ago.

For the payments industry, transaction volumes have collapsed as entire sectors have shut down and buying has ground to a halt. The impact is felt not only at the point-of-sale, but across supply chains and corporate, FX and trade finance transactions. In contrast, massive stimulus, relief and requisition packages have led to a huge increase in government payments directly to corporates and consumers.

Simon Wilson

Banks and financial institutions have critical, positive, immediate roles to play in supporting consumers and business, while facilitating the repurposing of entire economies and welfare systems. Longer-term, banks will need to address a range of challenges as they adapt to the new normal. One thing’s for sure, efficiency across every area of their business will be central to doing the best for customers and shareholders, and minds need to be on accelerating digital transformation.

Becoming the good guys

The reputation of the banking industry has never fully recovered from the 2008 financial crash. Public reaction to banks seen to be abandoning their customers will be severe, immediate and potentially unsalvageable. When push really has come to shove, the human race has prioritised life over money. Banks (and other businesses) that are stepping up now will be rewarded in the long-term.

Viable companies that have fallen on hard times must also be supported. Many industries such as airlines, travel and hospitality will not immediately bounce back, and finding sustainable ways to prop them up is undoubtedly a challenge. Accurate cash management to protect liquidity and reserves, for example, will be key to the survival of many businesses until better times return.

In contrast, other companies have taken off. Medical ventilator manufacturers are rapidly working to scale production, while engineering firms from other sectors are repurposing factories. Remote working means Zoom and Slack have seen share prices skyrocket since the end of January. Supporting and facilitating growth where possible will save lives and assuage ailing economies.

The unique financial circumstances and inclinations of consumers must be considered. Diligent savers are being forced to raid rainy day funds, take on debt and risk potentially defaulting on mortgage, loan and credit card payments. Spendthrifts are all-dressed-up with nowhere to go and are transformed into frustrated misers. A one-size-fits all approach will not work, and banks must think outside the box to ensure the individual needs of customers are met.

Making life easier in hard times

Banks must also consider the behavioural impact across the economy. The way we transact is likely to have changed forever as we get used to new payment methods. With billions of people stuck inside and shops shuttered, online spending has soared. And when shopping in-store, consumers are opting for cashless payment options, especially contactless cards and mobile wallets, to avoid touching cash and POS terminals. For corporates, cheque use (which accounts for 40% of B2B transactions in the U.S.) will decline as banks push real-time alternatives.

Banks also need to prepare for mass channel changes and provide support to aid this transition. Consider the many (mainly elderly) customers who were reliant on branches being forcibly converted to digital banking as a result of lockdown and quarantine measures. My suspicion is that many lockdown closed branches are unlikely to re-open, accelerating an existing trend.

Digital education is particularly crucial given another predictable, and disappointing, trend. We have seen a significant increase in fraud as criminals and chancers prey on uncertainty, confusion and inexperience.

But with banks’ own internal human resources under huge pressure and strain, supporting the transition to digital channels presents challenges. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies, therefore, have a key role to play in service provision. AI call centres and chat bots are already seeing increased use to help deal with enquiries, while AI-based fraud prevention tools can help protect customers. However, using them in the right way at the right time is a challenge that still needs to be met.

Speed and scale matters

Beyond support to individual consumers and companies, huge structural shifts must be addressed. The ability to respond quickly and on a massive scale is the key to protecting lives and livelihoods. Payments are an integral part of this response.

We are therefore seeing unprecedented government intervention. The U.S. is sending $1,200 to every citizen. But welfare systems are simply not designed for this scale, and urgent support is needed to help distribute funds and relief to those who need it.

Real-time payments enable the distribution of urgent funds, such as aid, immediately rather than in a week. Value-added services built on RTP rails, such as Request to Pay, will enable data-driven action and could prove powerful.

Global supply chains have also been decimated. Protectionist instincts alongside practical necessity have taken root as governments come under increasing scrutiny. With ongoing supply constraints due to social distancing the need to source closer to home is likely to drive lower intercontinental trade.

Banks have a crucial role in supporting a rapid shift towards domestic production, whether it be food, medical supplies or PPE. For example, Singapore (which produces only 10% of its food locally) has launched a $30 million fund to incentivise innovation.

Payments transformation in a transforming world

It is a brave person that predicts what comes next. But what we do know is that bank profitability, already a significant pain point, will be placed under unprecedented strain from reduced transaction volume, historically low interest rates and increasing default rates.

Reducing costs, and quickly, is essential. With the stakes now higher than ever, we can expect to see a marked acceleration in payments transformation initiatives. Outdated, fragmented and expensive legacy systems are a burden that banks can no longer afford. As McKinsey noted, ‘banks will need to reflect on how to organise themselves for change, possibly by running some of their payments businesses in a completely different way.’

Establishing a clear strategy and target architecture, outsourcing non-strategic elements of the payments value chain and leveraging cloud-based open source technology provide opportunities to reduce costs and increase resiliency, while laying a foundation to adapt to the uncertain times that lie ahead and support consumers and businesses through them.

Banking

SEIZING THE OPEN BANKING OPPORTUNITY

Nick Maynard is a Lead Analyst at Juniper Research

Open Banking has made significant progress in 2020, having recently launched across much of Europe and now starting to emerge in other markets too. And there are two primary reasons why Open Banking is disrupting the banking industry so much:

Banks have begun to discover the real competitive advantage of a more open approach to banking. Offering a superior Open Banking experience to customers can be a compelling differentiator from other competitors as part of a wider digital app experience. Open Banking also creates a level playing field in markets where regulatory intervention has led to Open Banking deployment. As all banks are required to deploy APIs in this scenario, the situation is the same and does not put any one particular bank at a disadvantage.
Legislation – for example, in October 2015, the European Parliament adopted PSD2 (the revised Payment Services Directive). By early 2020, major banks in the EU had adopted Open APIs. There have however been many cases of late deployments of APIs and problems with the availability of APIs.

Nick Maynard

The Disruption Factor

Open Banking is a major disruptive factor for banks. The reason for this being that it opens up account data to both AISPs (Account Information Service Providers) and PISPs (Payment Initiation Service Providers), which can attempt to carve out a role in the banking area.

AISPs: These new vendors are able to access transaction data and balance information, as well as related information. This has, in particular, led to the rise of vendors such as Emma, Yolt and Connected Money. These vendors combine information from multiple sources, adding value to the user.
PISPs: In this case, the vendors are able to leverage Open Banking API connections to initiate payments directly from the bank accounts in question. This means that these players are able to bypass traditional payment methods, such as cards. Vendors such as American Express and PayPal have already launched solutions that have taken full advantage of this action.

PSD2 Changes

Generally, the implementation of the new PSD2 European regulation for electronic payment services effectively reduces the entry barriers for new digital players. It also opens up banks to the potential for competition, enabled by their own APIs. This allows these players to compete with existing services in fields currently offered by the banks. In the case of AISPs, it is possible that third-party applications could displace the role of the apps from incumbent players, which would dilute the bank’s relationship with their users.

As with any fundamental change to markets in the banking area, there is the potential to bring a number of both opportunities and challenges to consider with Open Banking.

Open Banking Opportunities & Challenges to Consider

Source: Juniper Research

Banks and other parties that are looking to become involved in the Open Banking ecosystem must weigh these opportunities and challenges carefully. Open Banking certainly needs a more collaborative approach than traditional banking models, which will require significant effort to make them successful.

The Forecast for Open Banking

The total number of Open Banking users is set to double between 2019 and 2021, reaching 40 million in 2021 from 18 million in 2019. The ongoing Coronavirus pandemic is increasing the need for consumers to have the clarity of combining their accounts and gaining insight on their financial health, and also boosting momentum in the adoption of Open Banking.

This extraordinary growth is being driven by Europe, where the regulator-led approach to Open Banking has created a standardised market, with low barriers to entry. This contrasts with markets like the US, where a lack of central regulatory intervention is limiting growth potential.

Open Banking – Delivering Opportunities and Threats

It is worth noting that Open Banking can be both a threat and an opportunity for traditional banks. While Open Banking exposes user information and access to potential competitors, this threat has the potential to affect all players in the market equally. Consequently, established banks must create innovative Open Banking services that will provide benefits for the user, while also attracting customers from less innovative competitors.

Payments will be critical to the emerging Open Banking ecosystem; accounting for over $9 billion in transaction value in 2024. However, payments in this ecosystem are at a particularly early stage. While eCommerce is dominated by card networks, there is the potential that this role will be eroded over time by ‘direct from account’ payments. Consequently, card networks should look to offer Open Banking-enabled payment services, in order to offset the risk of future disruption.

Open Banking Users in 2021 (m), Split by 8 Key Regions: 40 Million

Source: Juniper Research

Banking

2021: THE NEW-NORMAL LIFECYCLE FOR BANKING

Laura Crozier, Global Director of Industry Solutions, Financial Services at Software AG

It would be impossible to talk about predictions for the banking industry in 2021 without mentioning the cataclysmic impact that 2020 and the pandemic has had on people, businesses and countries.

Unlike with the global financial crisis, banks have been able to step up as “good guys” this time around, rebuilding their reputations as well as accelerating digital transformation. One of the main outcomes is increasingly smart, efficient online payments.

In 2020, the banking industry innovated like never before. This is the new normal. Overall, customers and society will be the beneficiaries from the changing industry. Here are my predictions:

Reputations are reborn

Banks across the globe pulled out the stops to integrate and adapt systems and processes to help customers during the pandemic. They offered accommodations in loans, assisted governments with the distribution of financial relief, and supported consumers by upping contactless spending limits and virtual deposits.

In 2021, banks will risk losing that rosy glow as economic circumstances drive them to deal with non-performing loans, mortgage foreclosures, layoffs etc. But, beyond their role in society as providers of capital and liquidity, banks will invest to sustain their reputations as trusted and good corporate citizens and use their power to persuade their customers and providers to adopt higher environmental and ethical standards. This will be in the areas of bank carbon-neutrality, sustainable financing, serving the unbanked, diversity and gender equality (as the number of women running a major global bank will double from one (Jane Fraser at Citi) to two). It’s a start.

Coming of age in the way of working

Back in Q1, when bank employees cranked up their laptops on their dining room tables, banks that were strategically undertaking business transformation accelerated their efforts. Those that were tactical, or on the fence, now understand with painful clarity that this work must be undertaken strategically.

Cracks in process and the way of working and their resulting risks can be crippling. Especially from a back-office perspective, it is not enough to rely on “organisational memory” and collegial proximity for work to get done right. Advanced banks pushed the boundaries of remote work, and the proof of concept was successful. So, they’re doubling down on developing digital twins and moving to the cloud. They’re adopting the hybrid office/WFH approach to reduce health risks and reduce cost permanently. The watercooler will never be the same.

The death of cash

Ok, maybe the rumours of the death of cash are a bit exaggerated since there will always be the need for cash (and, to some extent checks; the USA, for example, cannot seem to live without them). But the pandemic has permanently changed the way that consumers and small businesses bank, and the demotion of cash has been accelerated by a decade by the pandemic. For example, the Norwegian central bank said that cash payments in that country have plummeted to just 4% of transactions since March.

Implications? It will be critical to continue evolving payments to be smart, safe and flexible to compete in new world, in both retail and commercial banking. Also, the permanent change in the mix of channels will see banks’ face-to-face engagement with customers fade. Branches aren’t going to go away entirely, but they will be reserved for high value activities – by appointment only. To compensate, the personal touch has to be delivered digitally and intelligently.

The role of the bank as a “financial wellness partner” is being born. Banks will use customers’ data, not just to personalise and differentiate banking experiences, but to make recommendations for products and services beyond traditional banking from across their ecosystem to serve their customers well. Just as customers own their cash (physical or digital), in the future they will demand that they own their data (and can share it with whom they choose). Then retail and commercial clients will share their data in return for value.