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REMEMBERING THE PAST TO MAKE THE FUTURE BETTER

Daniele Grassi, CEO of Axyon.AI

From the shifting economy to the changing political landscape – everything has an impact on the market. Yet, even with all the advancements in econometrics and analysis over the last few decades, the sector has still been unable to fully anticipate the true effect these changes will have.

The answer lies in the past and understanding how to harness historical incidents to inform future events. Those firms that can unlock the data hidden in these trends will be able to lead the market, see increased profits and avoid the negative impact of market shifts.

The challenge of looking back

There is an innate challenge in using past events to anticipate future change, however. Markets face extremely complex dynamics where thousands upon thousands of actors interact in non-linear ways. As a result, it becomes extremely complicated to identify the underlying trends and processes that will influence future change. However, through understanding these intricate relationships, firms can begin to anticipate regime shifts and even black swan events.

It’s here that the traditional quantitative analysis, supported by human supervision, is not enough. There is simply too much data and too many variables to consider. Even if analysts do make predictions, these are mainly based on surface-level trends. However, there are many more patterns and dynamics that traditional quantitative analysis and the human mind are unable to perceive, such as small shifts in entirely different industries that can create huge waves for the entire market.

A storm in a clear sky

The benefits of anticipating market shifts go beyond remaining competitive or increasing profit; these insights can also offer protection against entirely unexpected developments. While experts may be able explain in hindsight how a black swan event occurred, this understanding is not always enough to prepare or offset the negative impact of future events.

Every time a black swan occurs, the circumstances causing it appear to be different. Nevertheless, the result always ends up disrupting and damaging many investors and institutions.

Part of the reason for this lack of preparation is due to how firms currently adapt to market change. Traditional stress tests are not perfect, as they tend to replay a limited set of scenarios in order to predict how future market changes could affect a portfolio or the risk balance of an institution in general.

Even when these historical scenarios have more complex variations included, they often use a limited range of variables that do not account for deeper market shifts. This is where scenario analysis needs a more effective process.

Enhancing analysis

With the proper tools, human investigations can be enhanced to provide more accurate predictions of the market. However, technology is often still a stumbling block for many financial institutions, due to a fundamental lack of understanding and whether it will deliver practical benefits for the business.

The reality is far more positive, as AI solutions can actually help workers to be more efficient in their role. As a result, financial professionals should welcome the use of technology to help predict future trends and market issues.

New machine learning techniques, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), can support this goal by modelling the market with far greater accuracy. The data used in the formation of these scenarios can be more detailed and broader in scope, which means that the technology can look at data points coming from a range of actors that influence the market – such as economic data, fundamentals, sentiment and news. GANs can then use all of this nuanced information generate scenarios that take into account the inner workings of the market and not just surface-level events.

In practice, this is achieved by having two AIs working against one another. One AI produces fake scenarios while the other decides whether that data is real or false. As the AI learns to spot the false data, its counterpart improves its practices to make the next set of data, or market scenario, even more realistic. By using this kind of synthetic data, potentially in the form of thousands and thousands of years of realistic market scenarios, the planning and preparation for market changes can be constantly developed and not limited to static events that have taken place in the past.

While currently existing at a research-level, this technology is likely to reach mainstream adoption in the next few years. If firms are prepared to make this transition, they will be able to gain a far better understanding of how the market will shift, not only by drawing directly from historical events, but also by understanding how variations on these events can shape the market as well.

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TIPS FOR BUSINESS EXPANSION

Alan Sutherland, CEO of Kind Consumer

 

Every successful business had a beginning.  Its founders usually looked for ways to gradually expand, attract new customers and increase monthly revenue.  From the outside looking in that type of success often feels as though it requires some form of magic or hidden formula.

So how do you drive success?  There are two which are fundamental to success.  On first glance they may seem obvious, but they are often neglected.

 

Do you have a strong team?

No matter how great your business or idea you will not drive it to its full potential without a strong team behind you.

The process of recruiting and finding the best talent is never easy.  You must over-invest time in the process as it is a fundamental investment and future growth driver.  Two principles I have learned over the years when looking at recruitment are, to surround yourself with people who are better than you and do not be afraid to recruit someone who could make you redundant.

If you can achieve these, the benefits are clear.  Better business results, stronger talent pool, and with capability future fit plus built-in succession planning.

 

Have you created a road map?

Strategy should not be complicated, as it is the set of choices you make to help you deliver your goals.  It is your roadmap.

In thirty plus years of corporate life I have reviewed many.  Countless textbooks have also been written on the subject, but there are some basic principles that I firmly believe work best.  Namely, the vision should be clear, motivating, and understood by all in the organisation.  In addition, it’s important to remember ‘less is more’.  Too often strategy papers can be voluminous and complex.  The best strategy work I have seen is on one piece of paper with clear, simple articulation of the choices you will do and equally what you will not do.  It is very empowering to tell a team what you are not going to do.

 

Alan Sutherland

Have you established a core market?

In any business, the “core” needs to be healthy before you divert any significant level of resource to expansion, there are thousands of examples where enthusiasm to grow has caused companies to fail.

As you evaluate expansion, having an array of ideas and opinions needs to be balanced with a clear brand that consumers feel they relate to.  Whilst adding new products or services is an organic part of company growth it needs to be tempered, so you do not drift too far from your core market.

Therefore, before ploughing resources into new markets, you do need to ensure that new product and services will be of value to existing (or new) customers.  You may need to ask some critical and challenging questions such as, is there a clear need for this?  Is it marketable?  Does it sit within the brand equity?  How much will consumers pay for it?

If you conclude that the demand is there, only then should you move onto executing that new idea because it will require a significant amount of investment of time, resources, and money.  If the market entry cost is potentially high, you should also evaluate a test & learn approach by launching in a limited way and, if early traction is good, then expand.

Once you have revised your existing offering, you need to engage with these new consumers to increase brand recognition.  If your business is not online, add this to your to-do-list because in today’s era, convenience is key.

A website is the shop window to your brand and, done well, can allow you to build up a direct one-on-one relationship with your customers.  If it was already an important criterion before, the impact of Covid-19 will make it indispensable.

With social media and the abundance of mobile technology, it is not difficult nor expensive to drive traffic to your site, so you need to ensure the site is engaging, easy to navigate, informative with a call to action to purchase.  Loyal customers who return to your site are worth their weight in gold!

 

Do you have a healthy working capital?

Finally, a healthy working capital is essential not just for growth but for the day-to-day operations of running a business.  Even as you start to see your business develop, you must keep a scarcity mindset with cash and make sure you have some reserves for when something goes wrong. This has caused thousands of start-ups to fail as they hit unexpected turbulence and had no contingency in place.

In today’s global economy, there is a lot of uncertainty so there has never been a more important time to maximise liquidity to meet short term obligations and avoid going bust.  Not to mention, flexibility is key when a business is looking to expand and without enough working capital a business can lose this flexibility.

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BITCOIN COMES OF AGE

Katharine Wooller, Managing Director, UK and Eire, Dacxi

 

The Bitcoin halving event, which occurred on the 11th May, has been a watershed moment for the industry.   It has been a deafening theme for crypto narrative in recent months, and more recently has caught the eye of professional investors and conventional media alike, with some predicting it will be the catalyst for a substantial boom.   It appears bitcoin, finally, has a hard-won place in the mainstream.

 

Halving: In a nutshell

Bitcoin has a key feature; there are a fixed amount available, and, crucially it has a pre-programmed supply reduction built in.  The miners, who maintain the bitcoin network, validate transactions and add them to the blockchain when they are verified.  They do this at considerable electrical and computing cost and thus are paid in bitcoin. Periodically, the reward for doing so halves.  In the past this supply reduction, which previously occurred in 2012 and 2016, has coincided with a strong run-up in its price.

 

All grown-up

Bitcoin has now been in existence more than ten years and has survived the doubters, the scammers, the hackers, government attempts to quash it, and along the way it has given rise to new innovations using the blockchain technology that underpins it.  To overstate this amazing “survive and thrive feat” as well as the innovation it represents would be difficult.  Bitcoin, conceptually, has exceeded expectations.  Alas the 5,000+ crypto currencies that have sprung up alongside it include the good, the bad, and so very ugly.  Nearly all of these should fall away as Bitcoin dominates; at time of writing it is 67% of daily traded volumes.  Understandably, there is a very short list of 3 what we call blue-chip coins (LTC, BTC, ETH) that the institutional investors have shown interest in.

 

Solving some our largest problems

There is a clear appeal of digital currencies to the cashless internet economy based, including 24/7 price transparency that is available, cross border usage, divisibility to many decimal places, as well as third party oversight and controls. Bitcoin has been on a roller coaster ride over the last two years and has held its value throughout the current dramas and even increased in value as governments have stimulated their economies on a massive scale via printing cash endlessly to avert a market meltdown.  This is likely to create a massive inflationary environment into the future and sets the stage for Bitcoin to make its next move upwards after stocks and real estate prepare to reset valuations and attractiveness.

 

A new gold?

A lot of the dialogue around bitcoin talks about an improved version of gold, as a medium to convey value.  Improved by virtue of the technology being quicker, and cheaper to both store and move. Indeed, a recent transaction of $1.1bn worth of bitcoin, by bitfinex, cost $84.  Unsurprisingly this has caught the imagination of the financial infrastructure industry.  Some market commentators postulate a 10x increase in prices in the next 12 months, based on a few % of the global appetite for gold switching to crypto, with bitcoin being the heir apparent.

 

Diversification: Now

For the industry as a whole, it is great news that bitcoin is now demonstrably decoupled from traditional markets.    It is apparent that the price of Bitcoin is outside the traditional assets’ ecosystem, and the market is determined by a new set of criteria.  Bitcoin now has the crucial “social proof” that it cannot be altered by external forces, no matter how powerful, bringing much joy to the libertarians and retail investors alike.  Indeed, google searches for ‘bitcoin halving’ hit an all-time high in the late April, suggesting firm interest from newbies.  Further, the quality of exchanges available to both retail and institutional investors has improved substantially in recent years, providing a much-needed ease of entry into the market.

 

Professional Investors

Indeed, leviathan investors, such as Paul Tudor Jones, coming out in praise of bitcoin, as a viable hedge against inflation, saw bitcoin enter – unexpectedly – stage left to a much broader financial audience.  Bitcoin is viewed as what gold was in the 1970s, thus driving increasing interest from his fellow baby boomer cohort. Indeed, Dacxi, a digital exchange focusing on educating retail investors, saw some of its busiest weeks in the run up to halving.  The addition of global pandemic and imminent worldwide recession has been the perfect storm for the world to crave safe new assets.  Crypto is firmly out of the niche and into the zeitgeist.

 

What’s next

In my opinion, crypto has reached critical mass in terms of adoption. There’s no going back.  I was delighted to wake up in London on the 12th May and see the BBC reporting on halving – it doesn’t get much more mainstream than that!

As digital currencies become the increasingly dominant technology, anyone with an interest in markets and investing would be well placed to educate themselves on this seemingly unstoppable asset class.  With the recent momentum gained from the halving, crypto is likely to be a broader theme of daily life for decades to come.

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